By Robert A. Levine
The writer combines macroeconomic historical past because the nice melancholy with a short exposition of financial thought that stems from and explains that heritage, and explores how that have may perhaps follow to the current monetary difficulty. He warns that we might back be headed for stagflation and makes feedback for escaping the worst results of the concern.
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Additional info for Adjusting to Global Economic Change: The Dangerous Road Ahead
More capital, labor, and other inputs per ton or bushel) it is still better oﬀ producing whichever it does best and trading, but A will be poorer overall than B. , if A begins to produce coal more eﬃciently than wheat, then the direction of trade should 1 See Robert A. Levine, “Economists’ Contributions to Public Policy Planning,” in Proceedings of the International Conference on Public Policy Planning, Taipei: Research Development and Evaluation Commission, October 1989. 24 Adjusting to Global Economic Change: The Dangerous Road Ahead shift.
That is changing: Now China produces and is beginning to export automobiles, and the comparative advantage of the United States and some of the rest of the developed world is increasingly in high-tech goods and services. But it is diﬃcult for unemployed autoworkers—or their children who expected to make a good living on the assembly line—to convert to becoming software engineers. In this diﬃculty, and the time it will take for the overall economy to make the adjustment, lie many of the economic problems of the United States.
But until wheat farmers can convert to becoming coal miners—which may be take a long time—A is going to have economic, political, and social diﬃculties. In the real-world histories and projections of this paper, China and India and others are beginning to produce goods and services with a diﬀerent mix of eﬃciency than had been the case. China, for example, used to export low-cost agricultural goods and textiles and import heavy manufactured goods from the developed world. That is changing: Now China produces and is beginning to export automobiles, and the comparative advantage of the United States and some of the rest of the developed world is increasingly in high-tech goods and services.